The nationwide housing market looks set to remain relatively static through the opening months of 2025, following yet another flat quarter, according to Quotable Value NZ.
The latest QV House Price Index shows residential property values edged upwards by an average of just 0.1 per cent nationally in the December quarter, which was not enough to finish the year in the black.
The average home in New Zealand is now worth $902,414, less 0.3 per cent than at the start of 2024, and 15.2 per cent below the market’s peak just over three years ago.
The flattening trend looks set to continue in early 2025, with little evidence to suggest property values are set to grow substantially this summer, according to QV operations manager James Wilson.
“It’s been ‘steady as she goes’ throughout much of last year, and it looks like it’s going to stay that way for a while yet.
“It’s a new year, but the same restraining factors are still very much at play, including sustained weakness in the labour market, a high cost of living, credit constraints, and a surplus of properties for sale on the market,” he says.
“The marked uplift in demand for housing that has come as a direct result of falling interest rates hasn’t yet converted into any significant price pressure, so we’re only seeing very small pockets of growth,” says Wilson.
“However, we also haven’t seen quite so many reductions this quarter in particular, which indicates we’re now at or very close to equilibrium in the market.”
Just three of the main urban areas QV monitors experienced relatively modest reductions in average home value last quarter – Rotorua (-2.3 per cent), Marlborough (-0.7 per cent) and Queenstown (-1.4 per cent).
Average home values increased modestly everywhere else, including in Auckland (1.3 per cent), Wellington (0.4 per cent), and Christchurch (1.1 per cent).
According to QV, the average value of residential properties in Auckland at the end of last year was $1,245,290.
All seven of Auckland’s former local council areas recorded modest growth in the three months to the end of December.
Home values on the North Shore (3 per cent) increased the most on average, while home values in Auckland City (0.9 per cent) and Papakura (0.4 per cent) rose the least.
Only home values in Franklin finished 2024 slightly higher than at the start of the year, with its average home value climbing just 0.6 per cent annually to $890,869.
Manukau (-5.8 per cent) recorded the largest average annual home value reduction last year.
Seven of New Zealand’s main urban centres start 2025 with their average home values sitting marginally higher than at the start of last year, says QV.
They are Hamilton (0.6 per cent), New Plymouth (2 per cent), Nelson (0.6 per cent), Christchurch (1.8 per cent), Queenstown (2.5 per cent), Dunedin (2.9 per cent), and Invercargill (3.9 per cent).
“In the longer term, I expect we’ll see more growth this year than last, but with rising unemployment and such a high level of economic uncertainty, there are currently no indications that house prices are suddenly going to go from flat to flat-out in the immediate future,” Wilson says.
“We can expect to see more investors return to the market throughout 2025, especially if interest rates drop markedly further.
“That will put a bit of price pressure on first-home buyers, who have picked up a larger share of the market in recent times.
“But it looks as though the economy is still in a dark place right now, and debt to income ratios should still keep a lid on things in the year ahead.”
