- By Charles Miller
People have always tried to predict the future – it’s a natural response to uncertainty.
Whether individuals, businesses, or societies, we attempt to prepare for life’s curveballs.
In 1925, Professor Archibald Montgomery Low predicted the radio alarm clock, personalised news broadcasts from a family loudspeaker, and the ability to see friends across the Atlantic Ocean during a call.
By 1935, he foresaw video communication within half a century. Incredible foresight!
History shows that after global shocks, be they pestilence, famine, or war, society undergoes seismic shifts in trade, economies, health, and technology.
These changes are often accelerations of underlying trends. As we emerge from Covid and its ripple effects, and as conflicts in Europe and the Middle East (hopefully) recede, the pace of transformation will keep us reeling.
The global rules-based system is faltering. The United Nations risks irrelevance, and the world is returning to great power rivalry, primarily between the US and China.
Nations are being forced to align, both in security and trade.
Defence spending is set to rise to heights not seen in decades, and trade deals will increasingly depend on loyalty to alliances.
Tariffs are back, reciprocity will dictate commerce, and market access is becoming less predictable. The World Trade Organisation may be sidelined for years ahead.
Economically, the global outlook is for modest growth, around 3 per cent, constrained by fiscal limitations, tariffs, and structural weaknesses.
In New Zealand, growth is subdued but positive, supported by declining interest rates.
However, the need to address fiscal excesses from 2020–2023 is pressing.
Reliance on primary exports and tourism remains a bottleneck for scaling our economy.
To reposition as a technology leader, New Zealand needs more high-tech successes like Rocket Lab and Dawn Aerospace.
E-commerce continues its ascent, driven by subscription models and digital payment systems like Apple Pay and Google Pay.
Digital wallets are replacing plastic cards as consumers demand convenience and recurring value.
Artificial intelligence will dominate headlines, moving from experimentation to scalable monetisation.
Agentic AI – autonomous systems that do more and chat less – offers game-changing potential in medicine, education, and logistics.
However, it also raises urgent challenges in governance, privacy, and ethics.
Wearable technology is revolutionising health, with non-invasive monitoring, smart bandages, and AI-driven individualised cancer treatments.
Yet, the global medical community warns of unaddressed risks: the next pandemic and the relentless rise of antibiotic-resistant bacteria.
Sustainability demands, coupled with tech-driven supply chains, are reshaping the food industry.
Local, fresh, and functional foods, marketed with a strong emphasis on provenance, are taking centre stage.
Alcohol-free drinks are booming, with major global brands investing heavily in zero-alcohol innovation.
Content creation continues to democratise media, empowering individuals to shape wider narratives.
Subscription models thrive here too, meeting the demand for constant access to information.
However, misinformation remains a profound threat, challenging societal cohesion and trust.
Many fear that yielding intellectual sovereignty to AI will diminish our personal and collective skill and creativity.
To some, these shifts feel like a leap forward, offering opportunity and innovation.
To others, they seem like steps back, threatening rights and equity.
Regardless of perspective, 2025 demands that we face reality head-on.
As Crosby, Stills and Nash sang, “if you can’t be with the one you love, love the one you’re with”.
Let’s change the tone, embrace where we are individually and engage constructively with others.
Happy New Year, and all the best for 2025!
