In a shock start to the political year, the Labour Party has overtaken the National Party in the first Taxpayers-Union Curia Poll for 2025.
The poll, conducted between January 9-13, shows National down 4.6 points to 29.6 per cent, while Labour has risen 4 points from last month to 30.9 per cent.
It’s the first time Labour has led National since April, 2023, when it got a leadership change bounce following Chris Hipkins replacing Jacinda Ardern.
The Greens are up 1.2 points to 9.5 per cent, while ACT is down 2.2 points to 10.8 per cent.
The third Government coalition partner, New Zealand First, is up 2.7 points to 8.1 per cent, while Te Pāti Māori is down 0.2 to 5.3 per cent.
For the minor parties, Outdoors and Freedom is on 1.7 per cent (down 0.3 points), TOP is on 2.1 per cent (+1.0 points), and Vision NZ is on 0.6 per cent (+0.4 points).
The New Conservatives are up 0.5 points to 0.5 per cent.
Based on these results, National is down six seats in the Parliament to 38, whilst Labour is up five seats to 39.
The Greens gain one seat to 12, whilst ACT is down three to 14 seats.
New Zealand First is up three seats to 10, whilst Te Pati Maori remains on seven.
The combined seats for the centre-right are down six to 62, whilst the combined seats for the centre-left are up six to 58.
Taxpayers’ Union spokesperson Jordan Williams says: “Tough news about the dire state of the economy hit the headlines in December, so it’s not a coincidence the Government’s taken a big hit in the polls.
“Just one year into this Government, a two-to-one ratio of voters say New Zealand is headed in the ‘wrong direction.
“That is anything but an endorsement of National’s softly-softly approach to economic and fiscal matters.
“For many families, Christmas provides a real economic mirror. The data shows people are doing it tough.
“[Finance Minister] Nicola Willis’s lack of boldness in the economic sphere appears to be hurting National’s electoral prospects.”
