Out of the five major cities where housing intensification is proposed, Auckland has the “Unitary Plan (Operative in Part, September 29, 2016) to progressively develop Auckland.
A significant amount of consultation was undertaken and appropriate design guidelines are provided in the AUP (Auckland Unitary Plan) to enable the city to grow as population increases.
The AUP allows for more than 900,000 new dwellings within residential areas. From plan change 78 of the proposed housing intensification, approximately 2,389,000 new houses are expected to be delivered in Auckland. Auckland Council’s data (June 30, 2021) suggests that the estimated population of Auckland in 2022 is 1.72 million people.
For 2048, the high, medium and low population projections are reported to be 2,624,300; 2,302,900; and 1,993,400 people respectively.
Considering the medium projection, the projected population of Auckland in 2048 will be 2,302,900 people.
The estimated increase in population between 2022 and 2048 is 582,900 people. Reports suggest that Auckland will need 320,000 new houses by 2050.
The KiwiBank modelling reported by Stuff (April 29, 2022) showed that another 20,000 to 30,000 houses were currently needed in Auckland. Out of the 320,000 total new houses required by 2050, about 300,000 new houses will be required to provide accommodation to the new population of 582,900 people.
If 300,000 new houses can accommodate 582,900 new people, the 900,000 houses provided by the AUP can accommodate 1,748,700 new people. The total population at that time in Auckland will be 3,468,700 people.
The average growth rate between 2022 and 2048 is 22,419 people per year, it takes 78 years from 2022 to reach 3,468,700 total population in 2100.
The question is, if the 900,000 houses provided by the AUP from a systematic growth planning can provide enough houses for Auckland until 2100, do we really need to have the proposed housing intensification now in Auckland separately that potentially will deliver 2,389,000 new houses?
If we are planning beyond 2100, what about the planning of other infrastructure to support housing intensification?
Yuva Adhikary, Vice President – Flat Bush Ratepayers & Residents Association Inc
